{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
  "slug": "kxfdx-26junadv",
  "question": "FedEx average daily package volume, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      17000000,
      17200000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 16000000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16200000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16400000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16600000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16800000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17000000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17200000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17400000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17600000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17800000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18000000,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "fedex",
    "logistics-operations",
    "q4-2026",
    "quarterly-earnings",
    "package-volume"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume reported for Q4 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eleven discrete strike thresholds, from 16 million to 18 million packages, each a binary above/below contract. Implied probability differences across adjacent strikes reconstruct a synthetic distribution of expected volume. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination against FedEx's official earnings disclosure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9M4PG2V364",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4GZSL9ZMX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-16000000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 16000000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 507.85,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F15A56BBD8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fedex",
        "fedex avg daily",
        "package-volume",
        "q4-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DPDZ8ZK9T4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-16200000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16.2 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16.2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16.2 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 16200000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-19764BC58E",
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      "tags": [
        "fedex",
        "fedex avg daily",
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        "q4-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RJ1SJ37S37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-16399999.999999998",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16.4 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16.4 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16.4 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 16399999.999999998 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-A3B4F897E0",
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        "fedex",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CSSMNDZMJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-16600000.000000002",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16.6 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16.6 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16.6 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 16600000.000000002 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 305.42,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16600000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FBC9EFC7B2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fedex",
        "fedex avg daily",
        "package-volume",
        "q4-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
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            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCD5PFX703",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-16800000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16.8 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16.8 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16.8 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 16800000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-82CJ78R2P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-17000000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 17 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17000000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-3660F25787",
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      "tags": [
        "fedex",
        "fedex avg daily",
        "package-volume",
        "q4-2026"
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-17200000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.2 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 17.2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17.2 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17200000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-634B605F26",
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      "tags": [
        "fedex",
        "fedex avg daily",
        "package-volume",
        "q4-2026"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BYGL4SH0D6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFBCDTRWW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-17400000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.4 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 17.4 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17.4 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17400000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "sources": [
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 83.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 2777.14,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-8E95EAED93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fedex",
        "fedex avg daily",
        "package-volume",
        "q4-2026"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WZ87BFRT70",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDX-26JUNADV-17600000.0",
      "question": "Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.6 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?",
      "description": "Above 17.6 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17.6 million: FedEx Corporation's average daily package volume in Q4 2026 resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, deadline July 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-23T20:57:47Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17600000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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