{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "question": "Will the Fed funds rate be below 4.5% after the December 2026 Federal Reserve meeting?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "federal-reserve",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the Federal Reserve's December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, pricing binary yes/no outcomes at eleven discrete upper-bound thresholds from 2.75% to 5.25%. The implied rate distribution can be read from the cumulative probability drop across sequential strikes. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determination governs resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-95Y5SDZN59",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.94,
    "implied_probability": 0.94
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-95Y5SDZN59",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T2.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 2.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15177.418599999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-AD16CBDE4D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B11PKB72K6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T3.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5949.5232,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-6DD004D4E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "eligible",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0PFG5C00S8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T3.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 9934.390000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-AEB7D0DF47",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4G2F3CLN16",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T3.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 72,
      "volume_total_usd": 15511.1184,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-6EFC20DB86",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L5RCTZF263",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T3.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9932.8143,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-0024C0E5C2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5G6GYS13N6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1889.7502,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-A0F89BA1D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8DG8LMDMY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.008400000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 701.292,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D26E1C0D1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RLN6RRTN75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the December 9, 2026 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by December 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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