{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.5,
      3.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.75,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.25,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.75,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.25,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.75,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.25,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-interest-rates",
    "federal-reserve",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the Federal Reserve's July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures the event as a binary strike ladder, pricing the probability the upper bound exceeds each of eleven thresholds from 2.75% to 5.25%. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement. The ladder's implied distribution lets traders read a full probability density across the target rate range.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JRX13S1W47",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.06,
    "implied_probability": 0.06
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4LZ69MZ208",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T2.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 2.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 119921.1354,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-22735C5FCF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-99CNYDZY65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-4610A9A17C",
      "also_on": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7WNXL98WS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 93855.6729,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-0BBAAAB055",
      "also_on": null,
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        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "eligible",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YVBJ2BDZY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3602.7348,
      "volume_total_usd": 580655.0666,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1F152B9A01",
      "also_on": null,
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        }
      ]
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JRX13S1W47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 162.7566,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-1B706F68E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSSYMV56F4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T4.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 56.1813,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-140860009B",
      "also_on": null,
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QGGH53RFK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T4.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors will announce the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range following its July 29, 2026 meeting, resolving by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1.1300000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 1058.1541,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-280ED26AB5",
      "also_on": null,
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        "rates"
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQQ66334J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T4.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.50%",
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