{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
  "slug": "kxfed-26jun",
  "question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, June 2026 meeting",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.5,
      3.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.75,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.25,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.75,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.25,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.75,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.25,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "federal-reserve",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the Federal Reserve's June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, from 2.75% to 5.25%, enabling implied probability extraction across the full rate distribution. The implied cumulative distribution can be derived by reading each strike's probability against the next. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official target range announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W7XLT45600",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NRJX82HXG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T2.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 2.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 56415.73,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-D121D676D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SXCFRXD3S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T3.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7266.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-30D8F58BC6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GK67KFJ785",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T3.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2882.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 139453.59,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-CAC30FE790",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M4PLYY3KR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T3.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10637.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 179416.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D8AF8BAC27",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W7XLT45600",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T3.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 637.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 18678.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-5393D765D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R3MSH4Y1M7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T4.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49.52,
      "volume_total_usd": 1016.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE16929990",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5HLH7JVTG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T4.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate target range following the June 17, 2026 meeting, with resolution on June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve statement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 124.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-F5A74A57E7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WGVZZ8SV16",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
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