{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.5,
      3.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.75,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.25,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.75,
        "prob": 36
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.25,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.75,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.25,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 policy meeting. Kalshi structures eleven binary strike thresholds spanning 2.75% to 5.25%, each resolved by Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors announcement. The overlapping strikes form an implied probability distribution over the post-meeting rate level. Resolution occurs September 23, 2026, five business days after the meeting date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8KH50K7PQ2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GXVDK98JS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T2.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 2.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5390.5005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-9FBAC9BE30",
      "also_on": null,
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWNJ3H5J05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-8DE29C80AD",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQFJNKZ648",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-6332CFC960",
      "also_on": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F278DJMDK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.95,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-7A12433F6A",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 3.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.28,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-65CAEC1874",
      "also_on": null,
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WF4KX0ZBN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.03,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.03,
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      "question_id": "CMX-3A7E392F5A",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-06G6WB3770",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 49.0057,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-BA15F60AAF",
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        "monetary-policy",
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7ZPHK7G8W6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.50%",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 4.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T5.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 5.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.81,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-F9054D546E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
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        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "reasons": [],
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MH53BL74G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T5.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 5.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the September 16, 2026 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if the rate exceeds the specified threshold by September 23, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-FEA1F4B236",
      "also_on": null,
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
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          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}