{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
  "slug": "kxfed-27apr",
  "question": "Will the federal funds rate be cut after the April 2027 Federal Reserve meeting?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "central-banking",
    "interest-rates",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the Federal Reserve's April 28, 2027 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures all 18 contracts as strike-threshold binaries, each asking whether the upper bound exceeds a specific rate level from 0.00% to 4.25%. The cumulative probability distribution implied across strikes allows readers to infer a full rate-level probability curve. Resolution is via Kalshi staff determination, sourced from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DWQBW1ZTC5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.67,
    "implied_probability": 0.67,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T02:00:28.492Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z6H3Y4ZT35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T0.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T10:00:37.638Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1693.4148,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E31E95CD2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GWWJ2V50W4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T0.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-26T17:00:38.433Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2117.4615,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE3CE301DA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MK0SY8XSP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T0.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.50% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-26T17:00:38.433Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2711.6991000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-B1AF09D056",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CS6Y909XK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T0.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3667.085,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-B9119C0850",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V7BS1Y1435",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T1.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.00%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T23:00:35.683Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4351.1655,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-98B51BF746",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XR510R6M4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T1.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.25%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T23:00:35.683Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6257.305600000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-014463F85F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DN35Y5Z0S8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T1.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.50%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.50% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5082.709,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-028D6B29D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SS1LM8MRD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KWX3HB7XG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27APR-T1.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.75%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the federal funds rate upper bound following the April 28, 2027 meeting; Kalshi staff determines if it exceeds the specified threshold by May 5, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-05T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.75% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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