{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
  "slug": "kxfed-27jan",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve funds rate be below 4.00% after the January 2027 FOMC meeting?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' January 27, 2027 policy meeting. Kalshi structures all 18 contracts as binary strike thresholds, each asking whether the upper bound exceeds a discrete level from 0.00% to 4.25%. The spread of live strikes forms an implied rate distribution, letting traders express views on the full policy rate level. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official post-meeting announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LY4JXH7984",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.81,
    "implied_probability": 0.81
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C257JLLRD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T0.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.00%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 642.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B682ABE7F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GJF7M7R403",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T0.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 715.518,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-C244689AF5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K3LZC6FNM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T0.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.50%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 866.6894,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-0C5C1C4D5E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-644P7CWQL0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T0.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1424.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-5CA427A2C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8NN3KGHY95",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T1.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.00%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1093.4361999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-72CCE9D3D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KVC0T9XB06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T1.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1750.7692,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-127C99E49F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GRMNPF5X70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T1.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.50%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1770.1527,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-24B6644512",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RHSBKLHM45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T1.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement following the January 27, 2027 meeting, with Kalshi staff determination by February 3, 2027, resolves whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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