{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
  "slug": "kxfed-27mar",
  "question": "Will the Fed funds rate be below 4% after the March 2027 Federal Reserve meeting?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the federal funds rate upper bound following the FOMC's March 17, 2027 meeting. Kalshi structures the event as 18 discrete strike-threshold contracts, each asking whether the upper bound exceeds a specific rate level from 0.00% to 4.25%. The cumulative probability implied across strikes functions as a market-derived distribution of the policy rate outcome. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official post-meeting announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XKFWZWXCB1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.91,
    "implied_probability": 0.91
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SXPH639JW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T0.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.00%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 774.0908999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-0B5935ED94",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-067CL6Y2J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T0.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 860.3496,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-39A7E6D8AD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PVXG84BQM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T0.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.50%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.50% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 438.0494,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-01F255B689",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NHM2BJ3CD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T0.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 0.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 968.4276,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-136C41C1E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JVD474NZ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T1.00",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.00%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1233.2172,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-5174A020D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZTBYDD4M8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T1.25",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.25% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1489.1569,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE4E66655D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6QBK6JM1H2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T1.50",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.50%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.50% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 788.5489,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-B059247B62",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-295RRYTWR6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T1.75",
      "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Above 1.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement following the March 17, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee meeting determines the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range, with resolution by March 24, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.75% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
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