{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
  "slug": "kxfedchgcount-27jan01",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make more than X rate changes before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the total number of Federal Reserve policy rate changes before January 1, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as thirteen discrete binary contracts, each pricing a distinct count from zero to twelve rate changes. The contracts are mutually exclusive; collectively they span the full distribution of expected FOMC actions. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination, referencing the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' target federal funds rate decisions through the close date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7XL9G42BH7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.45,
    "implied_probability": 0.45
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7XL9G42BH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E0",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?",
      "description": "Exactly 0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 0: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7973.4465,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-D3B3B4D718",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-781THKSCS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E1",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?",
      "description": "Exactly 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 1: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.356,
      "implied_probability": 0.356,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.7799999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 2459.49008,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F0A178F55",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0N3SPQ98J3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E2",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?",
      "description": "Exactly 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 2: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.247,
      "implied_probability": 0.247,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 674.92503,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D628817EE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5R4T1GCTJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E3",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?",
      "description": "Exactly 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 3: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.097,
      "implied_probability": 0.097,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 238.32706000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-58B74E2524",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LWQ7T3FZV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E4",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 4?",
      "description": "Exactly 4",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 4: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 30.373199999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-20D38DD856",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W37RL0B727",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E5",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?",
      "description": "Exactly 5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 5: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.1928,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-EE956B464C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CSL6JW7NF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E6",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 6?",
      "description": "Exactly 6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 6: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 6, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9.11287,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-59337E3E93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V31DL7G9N0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E7",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 7?",
      "description": "Exactly 7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 7: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 7, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.5877899999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": "CMX-075BDEB25E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZZFD2SZH51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E8",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 8?",
      "description": "Exactly 8",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 8: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 8, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.57979,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-0807E9DB97",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSS69517P5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E9",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 9?",
      "description": "Exactly 9",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 9: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 9, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": "CMX-5E005D2F9D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NHRT4357Y1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E10",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 10?",
      "description": "Exactly 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 10: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 10, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.6779,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-AB8A0F8F46",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4WHDFH3582",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E11",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 11?",
      "description": "Exactly 11",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 11: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 11, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.54379,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": "CMX-17FCD7007B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V1FW246QM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E12",
      "question": "Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 12?",
      "description": "Exactly 12",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Exactly 12: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' final target federal funds rate decision before April 1, 2027, determines whether rate changes occurred, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 12, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.507899999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-7AF3E61BAE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-changes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}