{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-26dec",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in December 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2026",
    "economic-decision"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Kalshi markets collectively cover the full discrete outcome space for the Federal Reserve's December 2026 policy decision. Each contract isolates a specific rate action: cuts greater than 25bps, a standard 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, or a hike greater than 25bps. Together they imply a probability distribution across the target rate decision. All five resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official December 2026 announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LB3CRKMF04",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.63,
    "implied_probability": 0.63
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HQZH9WY894",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate decision at their December 2026 meeting resolves this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.1203,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-46375DCF02",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFKS7PGDL4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate decision at their December 2026 meeting resolves this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 499.0656,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F7084573A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LB3CRKMF04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate decision at their December 2026 meeting resolves this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4318.7319,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-74C1F3FBFA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hold",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-754XR8YQZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate decision at their December 2026 meeting resolves this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2208.1824,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F7084573A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement of the federal funds rate decision at their December 2026 meeting resolves this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13.356,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2273C5A08B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}