{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-26jul",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2026",
    "central-banking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures coverage across five discrete rate-level tiers: cuts above 25bps, a 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, and hikes above 25bps. Together they form a full probability distribution over possible target rate outcomes. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official policy announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CJYHXCSTV5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.95,
    "implied_probability": 0.95
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QTTLP9F5K5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement following their July 2026 meeting, determined by Kalshi staff review of the decision statement published at federalreserve.gov.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 594.4418000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 17433.3076,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A9BF7778",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZFPTB1ZZM9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement following their July 2026 meeting, determined by Kalshi staff review of the decision statement published at federalreserve.gov.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1360.7887,
      "volume_total_usd": 42404.8415,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-44E42C5A01",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJYHXCSTV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement following their July 2026 meeting, determined by Kalshi staff review of the decision statement published at federalreserve.gov.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 55986.40699999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 8147682.761499999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DCB90CACDD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hold",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5G46LGFR63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement following their July 2026 meeting, determined by Kalshi staff review of the decision statement published at federalreserve.gov.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6813.3276000000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 449790.861,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-44E42C5A01",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQG8RPSVK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement following their July 2026 meeting, determined by Kalshi staff review of the decision statement published at federalreserve.gov.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 255.52810000000002,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A9BF7778",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}