{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-26jun",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in June 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2026",
    "us-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's June 17, 2026 policy rate decision across five discrete outcomes. Kalshi structures each possible move as a separate binary contract, spanning cuts exceeding 25bps through hikes exceeding 25bps. All five contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement. Resolution is set for 18:05 UTC on June 17, 2026, shortly after the decision window closes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TVMCKSM3G8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1B54FVR787",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' policy decision announcement on June 17, 2026 determines the federal funds rate target change at the June meeting; Kalshi staff resolve based on official Fed communication.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 501.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 26279.67,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A289B6ED22",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JDYD5YSV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' policy decision announcement on June 17, 2026 determines the federal funds rate target change at the June meeting; Kalshi staff resolve based on official Fed communication.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1958.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 51464.69,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E5386FEBC4",
      "also_on": [
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          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZNT3N00PV5",
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      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TVMCKSM3G8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' policy decision announcement on June 17, 2026 determines the federal funds rate target change at the June meeting; Kalshi staff resolve based on official Fed communication.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 216372.73,
      "volume_total_usd": 7162082.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E5386FEBC4",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4RFTL7NZ8",
          "price": 0.005
        },
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZNT3N00PV5",
          "price": 0
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hold",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HYTTGTYPP4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' policy decision announcement on June 17, 2026 determines the federal funds rate target change at the June meeting; Kalshi staff resolve based on official Fed communication.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1518.95,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E5386FEBC4",
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      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-16DZFCFSL8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' policy decision announcement on June 17, 2026 determines the federal funds rate target change at the June meeting; Kalshi staff resolve based on official Fed communication.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "score": 90,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 13967.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-33C10B7AAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TVMCKSM3G8",
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      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-17T17:59:00Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HYTTGTYPP4",
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      "outcome": "NO",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-0MXJDKX8S2",
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}