{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-26oct",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2026",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete binary contracts spanning the full outcome distribution: cuts greater than 25bps, a 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, and hikes greater than 25bps. Together they form an exhaustive, mutually exclusive set priced via Kalshi staff determination. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcement on October 28, 2026 is the authoritative resolution source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TZ8R99CNG9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.73,
    "implied_probability": 0.73
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RQVC40SSV0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on October 28, 2026 determines whether the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_total_usd": 26.842600000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-50E542A0D4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0CVTVL3M53",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on October 28, 2026 determines whether the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1327.013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-50E542A0D4",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on October 28, 2026 determines whether the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 232.05239999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 8509.4494,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D1378CFECC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
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        "rates"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1B4N16W9R1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on October 28, 2026 determines whether the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on October 28, 2026 determines whether the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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