{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-26sep",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-decision",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "central-banking",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate decision at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The five Kalshi contracts span the full policy distribution: cuts greater than 25bps, a standard 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, and hikes greater than 25bps. All five resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official rate announcement. Resolution is set for September 16, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GSZK2GRHV5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.63,
    "implied_probability": 0.63
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLS11JGLK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: The Federal Reserve Board's official announcement of its target federal funds rate decision at the September 2026 meeting, published at federalreserve.gov, resolves this market by September 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.823,
      "volume_total_usd": 299.2071,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-15CE42DF09",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BSDY9K0FM3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: The Federal Reserve Board's official announcement of its target federal funds rate decision at the September 2026 meeting, published at federalreserve.gov, resolves this market by September 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.724299999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 2352.5565,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F122182A9F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GSZK2GRHV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: The Federal Reserve Board's official announcement of its target federal funds rate decision at the September 2026 meeting, published at federalreserve.gov, resolves this market by September 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1180.2546,
      "volume_total_usd": 23968.898100000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-46D836451D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SGMCD3D937",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: The Federal Reserve Board's official announcement of its target federal funds rate decision at the September 2026 meeting, published at federalreserve.gov, resolves this market by September 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1164.6231,
      "volume_total_usd": 28070.3497,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F122182A9F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NRL1GBQ6K1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: The Federal Reserve Board's official announcement of its target federal funds rate decision at the September 2026 meeting, published at federalreserve.gov, resolves this market by September 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.1547,
      "volume_total_usd": 162.1123,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-15CE42DF09",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}