{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-27apr",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in April 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "us-economy",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's April 2027 policy rate decision across five discrete outcome tiers. Kalshi structures the event as mutually exclusive rate-level strikes: cuts greater than 25bps, a 25bp cut, no change, a 25bp hike, and hikes greater than 25bps. All five markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official April 2027 policy announcement. Resolution is set for April 28, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RLP62TBNQ7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.72,
    "implied_probability": 0.72
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-69NB0DH6K5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27APR-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of its April 2027 policy decision, communicated at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, determines the outcome by Kalshi staff review.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 104.9695,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-74399268E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W5F8BXB360",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27APR-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of its April 2027 policy decision, communicated at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, determines the outcome by Kalshi staff review.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 279.4407,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E9E827D887",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RLP62TBNQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve's official announcement of its April 2027 policy decision, communicated at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, determines the outcome by Kalshi staff review.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8817.516,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3611E6CA7C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hold",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JVCZ670X48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of its April 2027 policy decision, communicated at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, determines the outcome by Kalshi staff review.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.0760000000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E9E827D887",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-15YG9H3DJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of its April 2027 policy decision, communicated at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, determines the outcome by Kalshi staff review.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13694.56,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2406B2FFB5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hike",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C4S10XK5Z0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}