{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-27dec",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in December 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2027",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's target rate decision at the December 2027 FOMC meeting. Each Kalshi contract isolates a discrete policy outcome: cut greater than 25bps, cut 25bps, hold, hike 25bps, or hike greater than 25bps. Together they span the full distribution of plausible rate moves. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official policy announcement on December 15, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0SVHKZXK07",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T19:00:47.588Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJVT94K420",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy decision announcement on December 15, 2027 determines whether the federal funds rate increases by more than 25 basis points, as confirmed by Kalshi staff review of official Federal Reserve statements.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-08T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-08T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T19:00:47.588Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 995.2236,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A16B97459B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuts",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBTPFJZ7J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy decision announcement on December 15, 2027 determines whether the federal funds rate increases by more than 25 basis points, as confirmed by Kalshi staff review of official Federal Reserve statements.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-08T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-08T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T19:00:47.588Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 146.7576,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-77F1AB7A4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuts",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6P0CK2P682",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: The Federal Reserve's policy decision announcement on December 15, 2027 determines whether the federal funds rate increases by more than 25 basis points, as confirmed by Kalshi staff review of official Federal Reserve statements.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-08T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-08T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T22:00:40.875Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2003.0597999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-72D827917E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hold",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SGRXT5S5F1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy decision announcement on December 15, 2027 determines whether the federal funds rate increases by more than 25 basis points, as confirmed by Kalshi staff review of official Federal Reserve statements.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-08T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-08T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.09,
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      "volume_total_usd": 2289.6477,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-77F1AB7A4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hikes",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0SVHKZXK07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: The Federal Reserve's policy decision announcement on December 15, 2027 determines whether the federal funds rate increases by more than 25 basis points, as confirmed by Kalshi staff review of official Federal Reserve statements.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-08T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-08T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 6966.8000999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A16B97459B",
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      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "hikes",
        "monetary policy",
        "rates"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D9GMMQLFR9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}