{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-27jan",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in January 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "central-banking",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's federal funds target rate decision at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Five mutually exclusive Kalshi contracts span the full policy range: cuts above 25bps, a 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, and hikes above 25bps. Together they form a discrete probability distribution across all plausible rate outcomes. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on January 26, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P879T6CX94",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.92,
    "implied_probability": 0.92
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W1RWNVZ419",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on January 26, 2027 will disclose the federal funds rate decision; Kalshi staff determination resolves the outcome by January 27, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-27T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25.7571,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E7C1E5FC27",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve interest",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4SDFM3QQV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on January 26, 2027 will disclose the federal funds rate decision; Kalshi staff determination resolves the outcome by January 27, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-27T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 97.4567,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-28169DC5F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve interest",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P879T6CX94",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on January 26, 2027 will disclose the federal funds rate decision; Kalshi staff determination resolves the outcome by January 27, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-27T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7597.6636,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-675978CE93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve interest",
        "hold",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PFW74YTRC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on January 26, 2027 will disclose the federal funds rate decision; Kalshi staff determination resolves the outcome by January 27, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-27T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 272.13009999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-28169DC5F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve interest",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H1JJKVWLN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on January 26, 2027 will disclose the federal funds rate decision; Kalshi staff determination resolves the outcome by January 27, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-27T18:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-27T19:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27.013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A1DE03C869",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve interest",
        "hike",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}