{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-27jul",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "us-economics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision at the July 2027 FOMC meeting. Five discrete Kalshi contracts span the full outcome distribution: cuts above 25bps, a standard 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, and hikes above 25bps. Together they form a complete probability surface across all plausible rate actions. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official policy announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T1WWSN7NL9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.77,
    "implied_probability": 0.77
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D2TRGXB172",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of the policy decision at their July 2027 meeting, published on federalreserve.gov by July 28, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 922.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9ED0D159F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve july",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFKBNZP523",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of the policy decision at their July 2027 meeting, published on federalreserve.gov by July 28, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 366.77,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9ED0D159F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve july",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T1WWSN7NL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve's official announcement of the policy decision at their July 2027 meeting, published on federalreserve.gov by July 28, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 227.73,
      "volume_total_usd": 4445.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-78C1F84722",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve july",
        "hold",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FY7XBMNGC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of the policy decision at their July 2027 meeting, published on federalreserve.gov by July 28, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 47.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7785DD50BA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve july",
        "hike",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SF6TV60TB5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcement of the policy decision at their July 2027 meeting, published on federalreserve.gov by July 28, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9F616D80D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve july",
        "hike",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}