{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-27oct",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "fomc-decision",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision at the October 2027 FOMC meeting. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete binary contracts spanning the full rate-action spectrum. Each contract isolates a single outcome: cuts greater than 25bps, a 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, or hikes greater than 25bps. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official October 27, 2027 policy announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4R2424BCC1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.21,
    "implied_probability": 0.21
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6DGSSH6TS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement on October 27, 2027, determines whether the named central bank cuts its target rate by the specified basis points at that meeting.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-27T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-27T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13.474000000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-82C5952BA2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4R2424BCC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement on October 27, 2027, determines whether the named central bank cuts its target rate by the specified basis points at that meeting.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-27T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-27T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6779.9424,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C27710C54",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "cut",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0GQRFD0Q28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement on October 27, 2027, determines whether the named central bank cuts its target rate by the specified basis points at that meeting.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-27T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-27T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 113.46879999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CACD86573E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve policy",
        "hold",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RZS7SXHX54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement on October 27, 2027, determines whether the named central bank cuts its target rate by the specified basis points at that meeting.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-27T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-27T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3908.8392000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C27710C54",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve policy",
        "hike",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B1P2716Z75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve's official policy announcement on October 27, 2027, determines whether the named central bank cuts its target rate by the specified basis points at that meeting.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-27T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-27T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question_id": "CMX-C1EFE4B59E",
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      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve policy",
        "hike",
        "rates"
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V1WZR1BDL8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}