{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
  "slug": "kxfeddecision-27sep",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2027",
    "us-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Kalshi markets collectively map the full distribution of Federal Reserve policy outcomes at the September 2027 FOMC meeting. Each contract isolates a discrete move: cuts greater than 25bps, a 25bp cut, a hold, a 25bp hike, or a hike greater than 25bps. Together they price the probability mass across the rate decision spectrum. Kalshi staff determination resolves each binary against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official policy rate announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JJYC7DQXS5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.68,
    "implied_probability": 0.68
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JJYC7DQXS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut >25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcements on the policy rate decision at their September 2027 meeting, posted to federalreserve.gov by September 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-15T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-15T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9614.0508,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-21BAA2FDE0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-80QT2NJ092",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcements on the policy rate decision at their September 2027 meeting, posted to federalreserve.gov by September 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-15T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-15T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26.750700000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7BCB07B28D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0XKKSPD6T0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Fed maintains rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fed maintains rate: Federal Reserve's official announcements on the policy rate decision at their September 2027 meeting, posted to federalreserve.gov by September 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-15T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-15T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 190.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-756D43A227",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4MH3V8B9N4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcements on the policy rate decision at their September 2027 meeting, posted to federalreserve.gov by September 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-15T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-15T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 50.925599999999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7BCB07B28D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6LG93M7466",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?",
      "description": "Hike >25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike >25bps: Federal Reserve's official announcements on the policy rate decision at their September 2027 meeting, posted to federalreserve.gov by September 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-15T17:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-15T18:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.3542,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0BBB16E4E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LC70RT24T5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}