{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ91PG43J7",
  "slug": "kxfedemployees-27feb",
  "question": "Government employees cut, before March 2027",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      50000,
      100000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 50000,
        "prob": 91
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      {
        "threshold": 100000,
        "prob": 43
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 23
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      {
        "threshold": 200000,
        "prob": 19
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        "prob": 9
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      {
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        "prob": 3
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      {
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        "prob": 3
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  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "trump-government",
    "workforce-reduction",
    "federal-employment",
    "2026",
    "policy-implementation"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track cumulative federal workforce reductions against discrete headcount thresholds before January 2027. The seven Kalshi tiers form a probability ladder from 50,000 to 350,000 cuts, each resolved via Kalshi staff determination using the Federal Reserve Economic Data series on total government employees. The FRED series reflects Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll survey data, introducing a revision risk: preliminary figures can shift before final publication. Traders should note that the January 2027 comparison date aligns with the resolve_at timestamp of March 2027, leaving a settlement window for data revisions.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H2Q6GYV981",
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    "implied_probability": 0.27
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G57HYD3GG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ91PG43J7",
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      "description": "More than 50,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 50,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series on total government employees will be compared on January 31, 2027 versus the baseline, with Kalshi staff determination by March 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-07T01:07:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 50000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, 2.738 Million Federal Employees are reported for the December 2025 figure.",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 2699.97,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B28DFBA0EC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "government employees",
        "reductions",
        "workforce"
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      "question": "Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "More than 100,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 100,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series on total government employees will be compared on January 31, 2027 versus the baseline, with Kalshi staff determination by March 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-04T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 100000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, 2.738 Million Federal Employees are reported for the December 2025 figure.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "score": 90,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1141.8441,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-88V1C4P1K7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ91PG43J7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-200000",
      "question": "Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "More than 200,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 200,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series on total government employees will be compared on January 31, 2027 versus the baseline, with Kalshi staff determination by March 4, 2027.",
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        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 200000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, 2.738 Million Federal Employees are reported for the December 2025 figure.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.12,
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      "volume_total_usd": 70.2024,
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      "tags": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-250000",
      "question": "Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "More than 250,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 250,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series on total government employees will be compared on January 31, 2027 versus the baseline, with Kalshi staff determination by March 4, 2027.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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}