{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
  "slug": "kxfedreform-27",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make unusual procedural changes in 2026-2027? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "policy-precedent",
    "fomc-decisions",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [
    "cpi",
    "jobs",
    "gdp",
    "fomc"
  ],
  "catalyst_dates": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-10",
      "type": "cpi",
      "label": "CPI release",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "type": "fomc",
      "label": "FOMC rate decision",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "type": "gdp",
      "label": "GDP release",
      "source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    }
  ],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Kalshi markets track discrete procedural breaks from established Federal Reserve norms through early 2027. Each contract isolates a specific precedent: press conference cancellation, SEP format changes, Board removals, budget non-approval, and FOMC statement omissions. All six resolve via Kalshi staff determination using Federal Reserve, Washington Post, or equivalent news reporting. Markets are structured as independent binary outcomes, not a composite index of Fed institutional change.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PLN87JJRJ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.59,
    "implied_probability": 0.59
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4M4L8SZDT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDREFORM-27-FGUI",
      "question": "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Forward Guidance Removed",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by the Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, or other news sources regarding whether the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-18T17:36:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-18T17:36:59Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate  after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1377.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "federal reserve forward",
        "fomc",
        "guidance",
        "statement"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PLN87JJRJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDREFORM-27-DPLO",
      "question": "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Dot Plot Omitted",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by the Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, or other news sources regarding whether the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections  after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5197.9944,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "projections",
        "rates",
        "sep"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBN7ZYW011",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDREFORM-27-PRES",
      "question": "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Presser Skipped",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by the Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, or other news sources regarding whether the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting  after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4007.9011,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chair",
        "federal reserve chair",
        "fomc",
        "presser"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y5FWRDNW62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDREFORM-27-REMO",
      "question": "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Board of Governors removes a Federal Reserve Bank president from office before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Reserve President Removed",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by the Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, or other news sources regarding whether the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Board of Governors removes a Federal Reserve Bank president from office  after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.1135000000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "board",
        "federal reserve bank",
        "governors",
        "personnel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4BL4SPN7J4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDREFORM-27-REJE",
      "question": "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Reserve President Rejected",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by the Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, or other news sources regarding whether the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president  after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1009.5,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve bank",
        "governors",
        "personnel"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCYMZ7D448",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFEDREFORM-27-TMEA",
      "question": "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Trimmed Mean Emphasized",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by the Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, or other news sources regarding whether the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures  after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "inflation",
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4M4L8SZDT4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-18T17:36:59Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}