{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
  "slug": "kxfert-26",
  "question": "USDA fertilizer price, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      900,
      1000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 900,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000,
        "prob": 27
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1100,
        "prob": 29
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      {
        "threshold": 1200,
        "prob": 17
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      {
        "threshold": 1300,
        "prob": 15
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      {
        "threshold": 1400,
        "prob": 17
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500,
        "prob": 14
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600,
        "prob": 11
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fertilizer-prices",
    "commodity-markets",
    "agriculture-economics",
    "price-prediction",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a USDA-monitored fertilizer commodity price closes above discrete dollar thresholds during 2026. Kalshi lists seven binary strike levels spanning $1000 to $1600, each resolved by Kalshi staff determination against USDA fertilizer price data. The probability spread across strikes implies a market-derived price distribution for the underlying commodity. Resolution uses the USDA data series as authoritative source, with Kalshi staff determining threshold breach by January 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M0WRPRYB57",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M0WRPRYB57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1000",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1000: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "USDA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "USDA",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 69.68,
      "volume_total_usd": 2089.656,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000,
      "question_id": "CMX-EA7EB6F94F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
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        "price"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V9PPB9CBY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1100",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1100: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1100 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "USDA",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.09,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 1100,
      "question_id": "CMX-2632B73B85",
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        "commodity",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9GRQG7KN62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1200",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1200: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1200 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "USDA",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
        "sources": [
          {
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        "source_of_record": "USDA",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE7EDC636D",
      "also_on": null,
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        "commodity",
        "fertilizer",
        "price"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "permitted_category": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZW0T9FNTB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1300",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1300",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1300: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1300 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "USDA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
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          {
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 127.31099999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1300,
      "question_id": "CMX-49DA980FD3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "fertilizer",
        "price"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GGG37W408",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1400",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1400",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1400: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1400 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.06,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "question_id": "CMX-0207A8D76D",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3C916T0CW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1500",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1500",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above $1500: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1500 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0.09,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
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      "question_id": "CMX-4965C21E40",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3ZKG6M3PS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1600",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1600",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above $1600: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1600 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0.02,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "question_id": "CMX-BC6F04A29E",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3DN46G0223",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-900",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $900 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3DN46G0223",
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      "deadline_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}