{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
  "slug": "kxfert-26",
  "question": "Will the price of fertilizer reach a specified high level this year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fertilizer-prices",
    "commodity-markets",
    "agriculture-inputs",
    "price-prediction",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a USDA-monitored fertilizer commodity closes above discrete price thresholds by January 1, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as eight binary strike levels ranging from $900 to $1600. Each tier resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination using USDA fertilizer price data. The implied price distribution is readable by treating each strike as a cumulative exceedance probability.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M0WRPRYB57",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.32,
    "implied_probability": 0.32
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3DN46G0223",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-900",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $900",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $900: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-17T17:01:09Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $900 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M0WRPRYB57",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1000",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1000: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.32,
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      "question_id": "CMX-EA7EB6F94F",
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1100",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1100",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above $1100: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1100 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.28,
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      "threshold": 1100,
      "question_id": "CMX-2632B73B85",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9GRQG7KN62",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1200",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above $1200: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1200 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.281999999999998,
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      "threshold": 1200,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE7EDC636D",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZW0T9FNTB9",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFERT-26-1300",
      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
      "description": "Above $1300",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1300: USDA fertilizer price data determines whether the listed commodity closes above the specified threshold by January 1, 2027, per Kalshi staff determination.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1300 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.11,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 4.18,
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      "question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
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