{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JPPHPC5D02",
  "slug": "kxfettermanswitch-26may",
  "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "party-affiliation",
    "john-fetterman",
    "democratic-party",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman formally departs the Democratic party. Kalshi structures the event as a binary outcome across eight sequential deadline tiers, from June 2026 through January 2028. Each later contract prices cumulative defection probability over a longer horizon. Kalshi staff determination relies on party affiliation as reported by major U.S. news outlets.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2VR03RM2H3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JPPHPC5D02",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-JUN01",
      "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: The named political figure's party affiliation status as reported by major U.S. news outlets, determined by Kalshi staff review, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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            "name": "MSNBC",
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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            "name": "The Information",
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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            "name": "The New York Times",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "name": "Axios",
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "name": "Politico",
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        "grade": "C",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-THF9FL1D73",
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      "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: The named political figure's party affiliation status as reported by major U.S. news outlets, determined by Kalshi staff review, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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            "name": "The Information",
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            "name": "CBS",
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            "name": "The New York Times",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "name": "Axios",
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            "name": "CNN",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "name": "Politico",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-095T7PQ1N0",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-AUG01",
      "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: The named political figure's party affiliation status as reported by major U.S. news outlets, determined by Kalshi staff review, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "The Information",
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            "name": "CBS",
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            "name": "The New York Times",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "name": "Axios",
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            "name": "CNN",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9XRR0Q6X8",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03",
      "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TC9KXQR37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JPPHPC5D02",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFETTERMANSWITCH-27MAY-JAN01",
      "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The named political figure's party affiliation status as reported by major U.S. news outlets, determined by Kalshi staff review, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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