{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
  "slug": "kxfrontier-fron",
  "question": "Will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-mathematics",
    "frontier-math",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "2026",
    "breakthrough-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI system solves at least one problem from the Frontier Math open problems benchmark before successive monthly deadlines through 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a sequence of binary time-horizon contracts spanning July through December 2026, plus a full-year 2026 cutoff. Each tier prices the cumulative probability of a solve occurring by that month, making earlier contracts nested subsets of later ones. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution across all seven contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8CB18144S1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJZJ0R2T76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-26JUL01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before July",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 656.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVGKG67N92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-26AUG01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before August",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before August: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.91,
      "volume_total_usd": 295.47,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K8V1HV9XX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-26SEP01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before September",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before September: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 191.97,
      "volume_total_usd": 2503.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CB18144S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-26OCT01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before October",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before October: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 9120.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CKN5T1CG82",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-26NOV01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before November",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before November: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2528.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JSM4SQKZP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-26DEC01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before December",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before December: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1182.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JG9M059PY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFRONTIER-FRON-27JAN01",
      "question": "When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T20:56:33Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<company>",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<company>",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=<company>",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.83,
      "volume_total_usd": 8812.31,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai frontier math",
        "frontier-math",
        "mathematics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JG9M059PY2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T21:26:35.958716Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVGKG67N92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T21:26:35.958086Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JSM4SQKZP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T21:26:35.958028Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CB18144S1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T21:26:35.957953Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K8V1HV9XX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T21:26:35.957229Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CKN5T1CG82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T21:26:35.956889Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJZJ0R2T76",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T18:33:58.37598Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}