{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
  "slug": "kxfundraising-nrscq326",
  "question": "The National Republican Senatorial Committee report M in cash on hand at the end of Q3",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      30000000,
      35000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 15000000,
        "prob": 91
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20000000,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25000000,
        "prob": 74
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30000000,
        "prob": 67
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35000000,
        "prob": 46
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40000000,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 45000000,
        "prob": 24
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "nrsc",
    "campaign-finance",
    "q3-2026",
    "cash-on-hand",
    "us-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the National Republican Senatorial Committee's Q3 2026 cash on hand balance. Kalshi structures the event as seven binary strike thresholds ranging from $15M to $45M in $5M increments. The implied probability curve across strikes functions like a CDF, letting traders express a view on the full distribution of the reported balance. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the FEC's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing, due October 15, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KZRQH29CG3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VM1N8T3JL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A15000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $15M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $15M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $15M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $15 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 744.6348,
      "volume_total_usd": 3739.463,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-15m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MM65TK5TJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A20000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $20M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $20M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $20 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 3772.7504999999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-20m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P28LFJRR26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A25000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $25M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $25M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $25M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $25 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 131.44809999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 1748.744,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-25m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6RBJV23G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A30000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $30M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $30M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $30M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $30 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 471.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 1933.835,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-30m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZRQH29CG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A35000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $35M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $35M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $35M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $35 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 228.462,
      "volume_total_usd": 975.9399,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 35000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-35m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6YWYPLFFH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A40000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $40M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $40M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $40M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $40 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 675.1173,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-40m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KMZTZVX8K0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A45000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $45M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $45M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $45M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 campaign finance filing for the named committee, due by October 15, 2026, determines cash on hand as reported in FEC Form 3X.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $45 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 178.002,
      "volume_total_usd": 1040.7440000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 45000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-45m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}