{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
  "slug": "kxfundraising-nrscq326",
  "question": "National Republican Senatorial Committee fundraising, Q3 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      30000000,
      35000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 15000000,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20000000,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25000000,
        "prob": 75
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30000000,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35000000,
        "prob": 43
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40000000,
        "prob": 33
      },
      {
        "threshold": 45000000,
        "prob": 30
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "nrsc",
    "campaign-finance",
    "q3-2026",
    "cash-on-hand",
    "us-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand as of Q3 2026 end. Kalshi structures seven binary strikes at $5M intervals from $15M to $45M, forming an implied probability distribution over the balance level. The authoritative source is the Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, reviewed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026. FEC filing deadlines can slip, creating resolution timing risk if disclosures are delayed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KZRQH29CG3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.43,
    "implied_probability": 0.43,
    "as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VM1N8T3JL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A15000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $15M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $15M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $15M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $15 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4125.1140000000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-15m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MM65TK5TJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A20000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $20M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $20M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $20 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3608.3199999999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-20m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P28LFJRR26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A25000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $25M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $25M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $25M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $25 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-20T07:01:21.164Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1755.296,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-25m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6RBJV23G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A30000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $30M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $30M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $30M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $30 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2119.4082000000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-30m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZRQH29CG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A35000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $35M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $35M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $35M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $35 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1079.9062999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 35000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-35m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6YWYPLFFH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A40000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $40M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $40M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $40M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $40 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 675.1173,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-40m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KMZTZVX8K0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFUNDRAISING-NRSCQ326-A45000000",
      "question": "Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $45M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?",
      "description": "Above $45M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $45M: The Federal Election Commission's Q3 2026 filing disclosures, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before November 20, 2026, determine the listed committee's reported cash on hand.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-20T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Republican Senatorial Committee's cash on hand is above $45 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FEC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FEC",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (FEC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FEC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1572.1344000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 45000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "above-45m",
        "cash",
        "nrsc",
        "nrsc cash hand",
        "q3"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LV96GYCML0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}