{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YVDS5CLYN4",
  "slug": "kxgbt55oy-27",
  "question": "What will be the lowest OpenAI GPT 5.5 output token price in 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "openai-gpt-5.5",
    "token-pricing",
    "ai-model-costs",
    "2027-resolution",
    "pricing-forecast"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenAI's GPT-5.5 output token price reaches discrete strike thresholds during 2026. The four Kalshi contracts form a stacked binary structure at $25, $20, $15, and $10 per million output tokens. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination against publicly available OpenAI pricing. The $10 strike prices the deepest discount scenario; the $25 strike prices the near-term reachable threshold.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WJRN0ZBYV1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.32
  },
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  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7SYZTYNHB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YVDS5CLYN4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGBT55OY-27-NA-25",
      "question": "Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $25/MTok in 2026?",
      "description": "$25/MTok or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$25/MTok or below: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's output token price against publicly available pricing data by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/ is at or below $25 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the price listed of the Output Token Price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in in 2026 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies.\n\nIf no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 25.85,
      "volume_total_usd": 1443.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-48D3F9D9C8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gpt-5.5",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt output",
        "pricing",
        "tokens"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WJRN0ZBYV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YVDS5CLYN4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGBT55OY-27-NA-20",
      "question": "Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $20/MTok in 2026?",
      "description": "$20/MTok or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$20/MTok or below: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's output token price against publicly available pricing data by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/ is at or below $20 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the price listed of the Output Token Price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in in 2026 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies.\n\nIf no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "https://openai.com/api/pricing/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6849.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-461CBB4322",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G11PY2C1D2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YVDS5CLYN4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGBT55OY-27-NA-15",
      "question": "Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $15/MTok in 2026?",
      "description": "$15/MTok or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$15/MTok or below: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's output token price against publicly available pricing data by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/ is at or below $15 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the price listed of the Output Token Price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in in 2026 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies.\n\nIf no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://openai.com/api/pricing/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://openai.com/api/pricing/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3347.06,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC5046D6A5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gpt-5.5",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt output",
        "pricing",
        "tokens"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1RVLGZNFF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YVDS5CLYN4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGBT55OY-27-NA-10",
      "question": "Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $10/MTok in 2026?",
      "description": "$10/MTok or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$10/MTok or below: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's output token price against publicly available pricing data by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/ is at or below $10 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the price listed of the Output Token Price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in in 2026 on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies.\n\nIf no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
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      "volume_total_usd": 1309.93,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-0A958A58C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gpt-5.5",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt output",
        "pricing",
        "tokens"
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-YVDS5CLYN4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}