{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
  "slug": "kxgdp-26jul30",
  "question": "Real GDP quarterly growth, Q2 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1,
      1.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gdp",
    "economic-growth",
    "quarterly-metric",
    "2026",
    "macroeconomics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track annualized real GDP growth for Q2 2026, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Kalshi structures the event as nine discrete strike thresholds, from 0.0% to 4.0%, each pricing a binary exceedance. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes reveals the market's full distribution over growth outcomes. Kalshi staff determination resolves against the BEA's preliminary or final Q2 2026 estimate, released by October 29, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-72GJQZD249",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3TRY6TK03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.0",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 98.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 3113.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-00209DFFA8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MM1XSXW129",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.5",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.6,
      "volume_total_usd": 3313.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-07CA66A9AE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5RH2S2SCB6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 35.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 21407.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E2034696B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-72GJQZD249",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.5",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 807,
      "volume_total_usd": 23684.71,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6D51B7355",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSGR9V91J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.0",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 478.22,
      "volume_total_usd": 15073.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-4094F13EE8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JK9GCPC4T8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 843.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 17697.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3E02990F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DL1H6FVKM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.0",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 150.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 878.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-3E22945726",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "q2",
        "threshold",
        "us",
        "us real gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B4S8KBWYB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.5",
      "question": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis' preliminary or final Q2 2026 real GDP growth estimate, released by October 29, 2026, determines if growth exceeded 1.5% annualized.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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