{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-chn26",
  "question": "Will China's nominal GDP in 2026 exceed $20 trillion?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "china-gdp",
    "nominal-economics",
    "macroeconomic-indicator",
    "2027-resolution",
    "china-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track China's 2026 nominal GDP against a ladder of USD strike thresholds. Kalshi structures the event as 16 discrete binary contracts, each testing whether GDP clears a specific level from $19.2 trillion to $22.2 trillion. Together they imply a continuous probability distribution over the realized GDP outcome. The authoritative source is China's National Bureau of Statistics, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination against that official release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q3KBH113P3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.95,
    "implied_probability": 0.95,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JV1LGC6R72",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.2",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.2 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 690.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-E108DF5206",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q47QRL4RW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.4",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.4 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 614.98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-F49357548C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PWR6B9CVG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.6",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.6 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 252.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-53BD84CB9D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7TQJXWWL88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.8",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.8 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 296.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC5CA185F4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPLR7GGFR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.0",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.0 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
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        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2264.64,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-B9D50C5057",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q3KBH113P3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.2",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.2 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3259.45,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-84943F18C2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.4",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.4 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 378.9285,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-204480B0CB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q72G0KXDK9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.6",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.6 trillion: China's nominal GDP figure as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, assessed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-FC77ABE841",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
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    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}