{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-chn26",
  "question": "Will China's nominal GDP in 2026 exceed $20 trillion?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "china-gdp",
    "nominal-economics",
    "macroeconomic-indicator",
    "2027-resolution",
    "china-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track China's calendar year 2026 nominal GDP against 16 sequential USD thresholds, from $19.2 trillion to $22.2 trillion. Each binary contract asks whether the outturn exceeds a given strike, forming an implied probability distribution across the full range. The authoritative source is the National Bureau of Statistics of China, with Kalshi staff determination resolving all contracts by April 1, 2027. CNY/USD translation risk is a key caveat, as exchange rate moves can shift dollar-denominated GDP independent of real output.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q3KBH113P3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.98,
    "implied_probability": 0.98
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JV1LGC6R72",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.2",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.2 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.699999999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-E108DF5206",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q47QRL4RW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.4",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.4 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 202.85999999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-F49357548C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PWR6B9CVG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.6",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.6 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 104.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-53BD84CB9D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7TQJXWWL88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-19.8",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $19.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $19.8 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $19.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.6000000000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC5CA185F4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPLR7GGFR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.0",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.0 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2202.06,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-B9D50C5057",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q3KBH113P3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.2",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.2 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3223.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-84943F18C2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2YZ3M707Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.4",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.4 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 226.52749999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-204480B0CB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q72G0KXDK9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.6",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.6 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 267.9424,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-EBAE23ABC3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5J0F06QN79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.8",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $20.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $20.8 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $20.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_none"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "also_on": null,
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        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-21.0",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21.0 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $21.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "caps": [
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          "commitment_none"
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      "implied_probability": 0.98,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 21,
      "question_id": "CMX-D88195D6CB",
      "also_on": null,
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        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-76VGCSH687",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-21.2",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21.2 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $21.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
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        "caps": [
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      "volume_total_usd": 155.9792,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 21.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-3E5C310ACD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GDX1PJ6W05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-21.4",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21.4 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $21.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "question_id": "CMX-7D84D2DFDE",
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        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K5JYXQ1B31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-21.6",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21.6 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $21.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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        "china",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-21.8",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21.8 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $21.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
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        "gdp"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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        }
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    },
    {
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      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $22.0 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $22.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 22,
      "question_id": "CMX-2B0CE77100",
      "also_on": null,
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        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
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        "gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-CHN26-22.2",
      "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $22.2 trillion: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 by April 1, 2027; Kalshi staff determination resolves whether the reported figure meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If China Nominal GDP is above $22.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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          }
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        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 20.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 22.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-FC77ABE841",
      "also_on": null,
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        "china",
        "china nominal gdp",
        "economic",
        "gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}