{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-fra26",
  "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "france-economy",
    "nominal-gdp",
    "macroeconomic-indicator",
    "2027-resolution",
    "eurozone-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track France's 2026 nominal GDP against successive USD thresholds. Kalshi structures all fourteen contracts as binary strike levels, from $3.2 trillion to $4.5 trillion. The implied distribution emerges from the spread between adjacent strikes. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques official estimate, closing April 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KSKBM5CQ83",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.81,
    "implied_probability": 0.81,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M41Y42B661",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.2",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.2 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1616.0298,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4AEDF341F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2QRMHWZDY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.3",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.3 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.3 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.3 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 437.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-86AEE58C9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KSKBM5CQ83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.4",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.4 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4375.636200000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-C639B7BFDC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FNYY2LSQ74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.5",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.5 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.5 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.5 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 36.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C5A7A56C9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R1T992GX56",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.6",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.6 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.55,
      "implied_probability": 0.55,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 51.623000000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-586E0E48FA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z4PY8K45V4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.7",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.7 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.7 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.7 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12.823200000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-3FAFBABEE3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N788MSG9K6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.8",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.8 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5.3999999999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-E9B4E8BFF2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "france",
        "france nominal gdp",
        "gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-55NYJTGCR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRYGRSJLQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.9",
      "question": "France Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.9 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.9 trillion: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques nominal GDP estimate for the named country in 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $3.9 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $4.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If France Nominal GDP is above $4.1 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 France Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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}