{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M6NL1G8MM4",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-ger26",
  "question": "Germany nominal GDP, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      5.3,
      5.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.9,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.1,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.3,
        "prob": 66
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      {
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        "prob": 35
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.7,
        "prob": 17
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.9,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.1,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.3,
        "prob": 3
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      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "germany-economy",
    "gdp-nominal",
    "macroeconomics",
    "2027-resolution",
    "eurozone-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Germany's nominal GDP for full-year 2026, resolved against OECD or national statistical data. Kalshi structures the event as nine discrete strike thresholds, each binary, spanning $4.7 trillion to $6.5 trillion. Together the strikes form an implied probability distribution over the GDP range. Kalshi staff determination applies; resolution closes April 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DD0QH3T0L7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.44,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M6NL1G8MM4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-4.7",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.7 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.7 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Germany Nominal GDP is above $4.7 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 Germany Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 77,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2051.0499999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-230F938E64",
      "also_on": null,
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        "germany",
        "germany nominal gdp"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-4.9",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.9 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.9 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Germany Nominal GDP is above $4.9 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 Germany Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2294.4,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-A6EE1A9E93",
      "also_on": null,
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-5.1",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.1 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.1 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Germany Nominal GDP is above $5.1 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 Germany Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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          {
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3158.42,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-441DBEABCD",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZWPRZJYW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M6NL1G8MM4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-5.3",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.3 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.3 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Germany Nominal GDP is above $5.3 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 Germany Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-41191F9E72",
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      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.5 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.5 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Germany Nominal GDP is above $5.5 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 Germany Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-5.7",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.7 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.7 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "germany",
        "germany nominal gdp"
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      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-5.9",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.9 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.9 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Germany Nominal GDP is above $5.9 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 Germany Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
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      "tags": [
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        "economic",
        "gdp",
        "germany",
        "germany nominal gdp"
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-GER26-6.1",
      "question": "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $6.1 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.1 trillion: German nominal GDP figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or national statistical office resolve by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
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