{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-uk26",
  "question": "Will UK nominal GDP in 2026 be above £3 trillion?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "uk-economy",
    "nominal-gdp",
    "macroeconomic-forecast",
    "2027-resolution",
    "financial-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track UK nominal GDP for full-year 2026, expressed in USD. Kalshi structures the event as eleven binary strike thresholds spanning $3.4 trillion to $4.5 trillion, each asking whether GDP exceeds a given level. Together the strikes imply a probability distribution over the GDP range. The UK Office for National Statistics is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against ONS data released by April 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5GYPVLW2W9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.86,
    "implied_probability": 0.86
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DBZBY1M7H3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.4",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.4 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5.699999999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-776C316F93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9MTK54DLR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.5",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.5 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.5 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.5 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-41BE2FE4F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZTC8RJVD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.6",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.6 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-157985C874",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HHSVB04LV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.7",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.7 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.7 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.7 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.699999999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-3214BBAD61",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3VC4H5CPJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.8",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.8 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 314.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-E2D62E12F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-607G8PLQ17",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.9",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.9 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.9 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.9 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1952.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-C31778705C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GYPVLW2W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-4.0",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.0 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $4.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
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      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3069.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-A2271C0F53",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SGM25HVWY1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-4.1",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.1 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.1 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics nominal GDP data released by April 1, 2027 determines whether the listed country's 2026 nominal GDP exceeded the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $4.1 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 70.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-91BB6EE19C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
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