{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-uk26",
  "question": "UK nominal GDP, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.2,
      4.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.4,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.6,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 48
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 29
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "uk-economy",
    "nominal-gdp",
    "macroeconomic-forecast",
    "2027-resolution",
    "financial-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track UK nominal GDP for calendar year 2026, denominated in USD. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of 12 binary strike thresholds, from $3.4 trillion to $4.5 trillion, each resolving independently. The authoritative source is the UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final estimate, with Kalshi staff determination as the resolution mechanism. The USD denomination introduces GBP/USD exchange rate sensitivity as a key variable alongside underlying UK economic output.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-95X7KV1X12",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.38,
    "implied_probability": 0.38,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DBZBY1M7H3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.4",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.4 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 94.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-776C316F93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9MTK54DLR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.5",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.5 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.5 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.5 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 93.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-41BE2FE4F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZTC8RJVD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.6",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.6 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 245,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-157985C874",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HHSVB04LV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.7",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.7 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.7 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.7 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 274.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-3214BBAD61",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3VC4H5CPJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.8",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.8 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1972.98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-E2D62E12F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-607G8PLQ17",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-3.9",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.9 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.9 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $3.9 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3971.7911,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-C31778705C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GYPVLW2W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-4.0",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.0 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $4.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3385.2000000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-A2271C0F53",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "uk",
        "uk nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SGM25HVWY1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1XDQZN2B72",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-UK26-4.1",
      "question": "UK Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.1 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.1 trillion: UK Office for National Statistics preliminary or final nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If UK Nominal GDP is above $4.1 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 UK Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
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