{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-us26",
  "question": "US Nominal GDP, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      32.2,
      32.4
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 29,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 29.2,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 29.4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 29.6,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 29.8,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30.2,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30.4,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30.6,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30.8,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 31,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 31.2,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 31.4,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 31.6,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 31.8,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 32,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 32.2,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 32.4,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 32.6,
        "prob": 34
      },
      {
        "threshold": 32.8,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 33,
        "prob": 12
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gdp",
    "nominal-economics",
    "macroeconomics",
    "2026-performance",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track full-year 2026 US nominal GDP against discrete strike thresholds ranging from $29.0 trillion to $33.0 trillion or above. Kalshi structures all 21 contracts as binary exceedance questions, each pricing the probability that the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate clears a given level. Together, the contracts form an implied cumulative distribution over the 2026 GDP outcome. Kalshi staff determination applies, referencing the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate released by April 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JJZQJTSXD9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.38,
    "implied_probability": 0.38
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F9NLPCBQS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-29.0",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $29.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $29.0 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $29.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 29,
      "question_id": "CMX-8274B8718F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0F25BN2338",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-29.2",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $29.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $29.2 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $29.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 29.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-4030282DC3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5BWJ8XWR04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-29.4",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $29.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $29.4 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $29.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 29.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-B628002D27",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8ZG7YTCYM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-29.6",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $29.6 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $29.6 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $29.6 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 29.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-43359EA063",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3545TTRQX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-29.8",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $29.8 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $29.8 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is Above $29.8 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 349.46999999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 29.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-5AF707D3F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KSH6NQ0Y58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-30.0",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $30.0 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $30.0 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $30.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 296.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": "CMX-5085B55161",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZRKYHNCCF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-30.2",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $30.2 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $30.2 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $30.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 163.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3097DBEA4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "macro",
        "us",
        "us nominal gdp"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-188WYC1LG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SBTK0NC26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPNOM-US26-30.4",
      "question": "US Nominal GDP in 2026?",
      "description": "Above $30.4 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $30.4 trillion: The Bureau of Economic Analysis nominal GDP estimate for 2026, released by April 1, 2027, determines whether the listed outcome is met.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US Nominal GDP is above $30.4 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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