{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
  "slug": "kxgdpyear-26",
  "question": "Will US real GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2%?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gdp-growth",
    "macroeconomics",
    "annual-economic-performance",
    "2026-data",
    "quantitative-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track annualized real GDP growth for calendar year 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Kalshi structures the event across 14 discrete rate-level tiers, from 0.0% or below to 6.1% or above. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the BEA's final published figure. Markets close February 28, 2027, with resolution by 15:00 UTC the same day.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-559JMDFW06",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.263,
    "implied_probability": 0.263
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q7RDW6MQF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-T0.1",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "0.0% or Below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0.0% or Below: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1642.2067200000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-A5B7C3208A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2Q7NZ1N9T6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.3",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "0.1% to 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0.1% to 0.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 276.3492,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73B22D70D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8RWCH6058",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.8",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "0.6% to 1.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0.6% to 1.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.046,
      "implied_probability": 0.046,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 736.95772,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-F474EBDB7F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-16DXHMBYW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "1.1% to 1.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.1% to 1.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.1% to 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.145,
      "implied_probability": 0.145,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1762.5300999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73B22D70D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-559JMDFW06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "1.6% to 2.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.6% to 2.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.263,
      "implied_probability": 0.263,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5688.203450000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73B22D70D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1X28GVVZG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "2.1% to 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2.1% to 2.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.272,
      "implied_probability": 0.272,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4758.98816,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1320BD6CA7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8JY9R8GMX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "2.6% to 3.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2.6% to 3.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3006.546,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D9BCD6DCE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TPQCHBVB22",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "3.1% to 3.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3.1% to 3.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1342.0620000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73B22D70D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X1PT8YJM29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "3.6% to 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3.6% to 4.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 683.30756,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73B22D70D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0XWS87ZKK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.3",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "4.1% to 4.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.1% to 4.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.13514,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0219154FA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B4K82Q8RD6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.8",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "4.6% to 5.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.6% to 5.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 30.54405,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-29B815F0EB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DB5R67SDN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.3",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "5.1% to 5.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5.1% to 5.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18.87423,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-8FCB729F96",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QSG4CYF557",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.8",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "5.6% to 6.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5.6% to 6.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 5.6% to 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11.26892,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-B2BFC7C850",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QWWMF5WBK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGDPYEAR-26-T6.0",
      "question": "GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "6.1% or Above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "6.1% or Above: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final annualized real GDP growth rate for the specified calendar year, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on February 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is above 6.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.\n\nAll stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BEA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15.3771,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-4EABC7AB20",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "growth-rate",
        "us real gdp",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}