{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GQVPSW58Y6",
  "slug": "kxgenericballotvotehub-26jul24",
  "question": "Will the generic ballot show Democrats up or down compared to the previous week's polling from 7/17-7/24?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "polling",
    "generic-ballot",
    "democrats",
    "2026-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks the Democratic margin on the generic congressional ballot poll, as aggregated and published by VoteHub for the week of July 17 through July 24, 2026. The single Kalshi market asks whether the Democratic advantage exceeds 5.2 percentage points, pricing a discrete strike threshold against the reported poll result. Resolution is determined by Kalshi staff using the VoteHub-published figure at close on July 24, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZSB19KK750",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZSB19KK750",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GQVPSW58Y6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGENERICBALLOTVOTEHUB-26JUL24-T5.2",
      "question": "Above 5.2%",
      "description": "Above 5.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "VoteHub publishes the generic ballot poll result for 2026 that determines whether support exceeds 5.2%.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 5.2% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "VoteHub",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "VoteHub",
            "url": "https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "VoteHub",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6969.24,
      "volume_total_usd": 13495.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024 election",
        "generic ballot democratic",
        "polling",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GQVPSW58Y6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}