{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
  "slug": "kxgovtcuts-26",
  "question": "Government spending decrease, before March 2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
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      50
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 10
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        "prob": 6
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      {
        "threshold": 500,
        "prob": 5
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      {
        "threshold": 750,
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      {
        "threshold": 1000,
        "prob": 6
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      {
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    "us-politics",
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    "trump-administration",
    "fiscal-policy",
    "quantitative-outcome"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track cumulative reductions in U.S. federal government spending against discrete dollar thresholds before 2027. The six Kalshi contracts form a binary ladder: $50B, $250B, $500B, $750B, $1T, and $2T. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination. Resolution data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data FGEXPND series.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7WQ7WVMQX5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.094
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  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGOVTCUTS-26-BILLIONB",
      "question": "Will government spending decrease by 50 before 2026?",
      "description": "At least 50 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 50 billion: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series FGEXPND, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before March 31, 2027, determines if the named metric meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEach quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "score": 100,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026?",
      "description": "At least 250 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 250 billion: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series FGEXPND, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before March 31, 2027, determines if the named metric meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If government spending decreases by at least 250 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "FRED",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND",
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        "source_of_record": "FRED",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 250,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will government spending decrease by 500 before 2026?",
      "description": "At least 500 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "FRED",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.065,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 5.4678,
      "volume_total_usd": 2688.35775,
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      "threshold": 500,
      "question_id": null,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGOVTCUTS-26-750",
      "question": "Will government spending decrease by 750 before 2026?",
      "description": "At least 750 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 750 billion: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series FGEXPND, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before March 31, 2027, determines if the named metric meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If government spending decreases by at least 750 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND",
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            "name": "FRED",
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      "last_price": 0.025,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 750,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGOVTCUTS-26-1000",
      "question": "Will government spending decrease by 1000 before 2026?",
      "description": "At least 1 trillion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1 trillion: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series FGEXPND, accessed by Kalshi staff on or before March 31, 2027, determines if the named metric meets the specified threshold.",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXGOVTCUTS-26-2000",
      "question": "Will government spending decrease by 2000 before 2026?",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-BYVFPZ6WJ8",
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