{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TMV1LTRGY0",
  "slug": "kxgovtshutdown-26oct01",
  "question": "Will there be a government shutdown on October 1, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-government-shutdown",
    "fiscal-policy",
    "political-gridlock",
    "congress-budget",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the US federal government enters a shutdown at the start of fiscal year 2027. A shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass appropriations or a continuing resolution before the October 1 deadline. The sole market is a binary outcome priced on Kalshi, resolved via Kalshi staff determination. The authoritative source is the Office of Management and Budget's determination of whether federal operations remain funded on October 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FKH7MSGZ10",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.48,
    "implied_probability": 0.48
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FKH7MSGZ10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TMV1LTRGY0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Office of Management and Budget's determination of whether federal government operations are funded and active on October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.\n\nExamples that would resolve the market to Yes:\n\nOMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to \"execute plans for an orderly shutdown,\" which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026\nOPM posts a current operating status that indicates that \"due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency\"\n\nExamples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:\n\nA technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations\nGovernment closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Office of Management and Budget",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Office of Management and Budget",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "United States Office of Personnel Management",
            "url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "OMB releases a formal directive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "OPM posts a current operating status",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Office of Management and Budget",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.48,
      "implied_probability": 0.48,
      "volume_24h_usd": 295.344,
      "volume_total_usd": 25038.806399999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fiscal",
        "shutdown",
        "us government shutdown",
        "us-government"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-TMV1LTRGY0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}