{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
  "slug": "kxgpt-open",
  "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "gpt-6",
    "openai-releases",
    "ai-model-timeline",
    "2026",
    "near-term-forecast"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenAI will release GPT-6 across seven sequential monthly deadlines spanning June 2026 through January 2027. Each contract is a binary yes/no keyed to a progressively later cutoff, forming an implied release-timing curve. A trader can read the probability term structure to infer consensus timing of the release. Kalshi staff determination relies on OpenAI's official website or announcements, leaving naming-convention ambiguity as the key resolution risk.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3J89H7V9Z3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.23,
    "implied_probability": 0.23,
    "as_of": "2026-08-29T00:01:25.253Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5188KWM7W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26JUN01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 53.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B2170FBEB7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SLKQ1VY120",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 155.59,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-27B0C84B5C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQLZ31T6F6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 355.48,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-58DE3F87E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Z7FCX8TJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T00:01:25.253Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.5716,
      "volume_total_usd": 6073.0184,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A51EEF1F44",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3J89H7V9Z3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T00:01:25.253Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 887.2755999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 26631.8794,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D140622098",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0GBTH8CVJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.53,
      "implied_probability": 0.53,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T01:01:11.017Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.3901,
      "volume_total_usd": 40826.0961,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F6EEFC8184",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TMVMVT45C0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before 2027: OpenAI's official website or announcements determine whether the named company releases the referenced product before October 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff on October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T01:01:11.017Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.0235,
      "volume_total_usd": 27302.0865,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5623417D4B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-47F7TPNHJ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGPT-OPEN-26MAY01",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before May 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named company releases the referenced product before September 1, 2026, based on OpenAI's official announcements or website.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.87,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1BAE075E60",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt-6",
        "openai",
        "openai gpt release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQLZ31T6F6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SLKQ1VY120",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:54:53.875431Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5188KWM7W9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-02T00:07:51.763417Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-47F7TPNHJ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}