{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
  "slug": "kxgrok-grok46",
  "question": "Will SpaceX release Grok 4.6?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "grok-4-6-release",
    "spacex-ai",
    "large-language-models",
    "software-release-timing",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether xAI releases Grok 4.6 before each of five consecutive daily cutoffs in early August 2026. The five Kalshi contracts form a sequential probability ladder across August 6 through August 10. Each contract's probability should be non-decreasing, as a later cutoff strictly dominates an earlier one. Kalshi staff determination by August 15, 2026 resolves all five, using xAI's official release announcements as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BH76BG8GL2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.75,
    "implied_probability": 0.75
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG06",
      "question": "Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6 before Aug 6, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 6, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 6, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by August 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET, based on the named organization's official announcements or public releases, whether the referenced product release occurred before August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-06T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.6 before Aug 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 271.94,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D3390289C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "august-2026",
        "grok",
        "spacexai"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPFN6BVQX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG07",
      "question": "Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6 before Aug 7, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 7, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 7, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by August 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET, based on the named organization's official announcements or public releases, whether the referenced product release occurred before August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.6 before Aug 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.89,
      "volume_total_usd": 1182.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-D84AA6FAB3",
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      "tags": [
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        "grok",
        "spacexai"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BH76BG8GL2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG08",
      "question": "Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6 before Aug 8, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 8, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 8, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by August 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET, based on the named organization's official announcements or public releases, whether the referenced product release occurred before August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.6 before Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 585,
      "volume_total_usd": 2456.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5815D65B6F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-release",
        "august-2026",
        "grok",
        "spacexai"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-64811ZW816",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG09",
      "question": "Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6 before Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 9, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 9, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by August 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET, based on the named organization's official announcements or public releases, whether the referenced product release occurred before August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.6 before Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "organization",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1537.82,
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      "question_id": "CMX-C7B6F9944D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "august-2026",
        "grok",
        "spacexai"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GBP4YP3RM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG10",
      "question": "Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6 before Aug 10, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 10, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 10, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by August 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET, based on the named organization's official announcements or public releases, whether the referenced product release occurred before August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.6 before Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "tags": [
        "ai-release",
        "august-2026",
        "grok",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z1YVV67XB3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}