{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
  "slug": "kxgrok-grok5",
  "question": "Will xAI release Grok 5?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "grok-ai-model",
    "xai-releases",
    "ai-product-launch",
    "2026",
    "generative-ai"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether xAI will publicly release Grok 5 within three sequential deadline windows: July 2026, October 2026, and January 2027. The three Kalshi binary contracts form a probability ladder; a July resolution implies October and January also resolve YES, but not vice versa. Each contract resolves via Kalshi staff determination against observable xAI release announcements. Traders should note that xAI controls release timing with no public roadmap commitment, creating significant resolution uncertainty.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DGF09NP7J2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.4,
    "implied_probability": 0.4
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G5M5NDJWF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK5-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before July",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 39,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1418.9165000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-967EBBB3FC",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-PLF75GP9L6",
          "price": 0.006
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "grok",
        "release date",
        "xai",
        "xai grok release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DGF09NP7J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK5-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before October",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before October: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI releases Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 39,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3891.592,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-281672E0D5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "grok",
        "release date",
        "xai",
        "xai grok release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q4M9MQRYH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK5-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 39,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.4774,
      "volume_total_usd": 3251.3105,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-81087121E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "grok",
        "release date",
        "xai",
        "xai grok release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T4JLQ453W4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK5-26APR01",
      "question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Apr 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before April",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether xAI publicly releases Grok 5 before July 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI releases Grok 5 before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 647.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F45EE7DC8B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "grok",
        "release",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T4JLQ453W4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}