{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MYCFX29QF6",
  "slug": "kxgtemp-26",
  "question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "climate-temperature",
    "annual-record",
    "global-warming",
    "2027-resolution",
    "scientific-measurement"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether 2026 will set a new global mean temperature record. Kalshi staff will determine resolution using NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies annual temperature estimates. The key resolution caveat is timing: NASA typically publishes preliminary annual figures in January, aligning with the 2027-01-01 resolve date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6X66CFN5G9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6X66CFN5G9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MYCFX29QF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGTEMP-26-P0",
      "question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?",
      "description": "Hottest",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies publishes annual global mean temperature estimates determining whether 2026 ranks as the hottest year on record.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "NASA Goddard\nInstitute for Space Studies",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "NASA Goddard\nInstitute for Space Studies",
            "url": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45.9284,
      "volume_total_usd": 48456.811200000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "annual",
        "climate",
        "global temperature record",
        "temperature"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "environment_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MYCFX29QF6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}