{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MYGYML41B3",
  "slug": "kxh200china-27",
  "question": "Will Nvidia H200 chips be delivered to China before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "nvidia-h200",
    "china-exports",
    "semiconductor-trade",
    "us-export-controls",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Nvidia H200 chips will be confirmed delivered to mainland China before 2027. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination, using public reporting from Semafor or other major news sources as evidence. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. The market closes January 1, 2027 and resolves the same day.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GB52RFYZQ8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GB52RFYZQ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MYGYML41B3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200CHINA-27-BEF",
      "question": "Will Nvidia H200 chips being delivered to mainland China be confirmed?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on public reporting from Semafor or other major news sources confirming Nvidia H200 chip deliveries to mainland China before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Nvidia H200 chips being delivered to mainland China is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves to Yes if any Source Agency confirms that one or more Nvidia H200 chips have been physically delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China after Issuance and before Jan. 1, 2027.\n\nFor this market, “mainland China” means the People’s Republic of China excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Delivery to Hong Kong, Macau, or Taiwan does not qualify unless a Source Agency confirms that the Nvidia H200 chips were subsequently delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China.\n\nRegulatory approval, export licenses, purchase orders, contracts, reservations, customer allocations, payment, revenue-recognition statements, manufacturing, packaging, shipment preparation, or statements of intent do not qualify unless a Source Agency confirms physical delivery, receipt, or import into mainland China.\n\nReferences to Nvidia “H200,” “H200 AI chips,” “H200 GPUs,” “H200 processors,” “H200 accelerators,” or “H200 AI accelerators” qualify, provided the Source Agency is referring to Nvidia H200 chips. References only to other Nvidia chips, including H20, H100, B200, B300, Blackwell, or China-specific modified chips, do not qualify unless the Source Agency also confirms delivery of Nvidia H200 chips.\n\nA report that Nvidia H200 chips were delivered to an approved Chinese customer outside mainland China will not qualify, unless a Source Agency confirms that those chips were delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China before Jan. 1, 2027.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16050.7611,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C53685DD07",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "china",
        "export",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 chips",
        "semiconductors"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MYGYML41B3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}