{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
  "slug": "kxh200ms-26sep",
  "question": "NVIDIA H200 monthly average compute price, September 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.5,
      5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 91
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 75
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 62
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 64
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 42
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 34
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 16
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-h200",
    "compute-pricing",
    "hardware-costs",
    "september-2026",
    "monthly-average"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of NVIDIA's H200 GPU accelerator in September 2026. Eleven Kalshi strike thresholds span $1.50 to $6.50, each pricing a discrete binary outcome at a separate rate level. Together they construct an implied probability distribution over the H200's average spot price. Kalshi staff determine resolution via Ornn, a GPU pricing data provider.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4Y16ZP11P4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.29,
    "implied_probability": 0.29,
    "as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KX1XX5FTM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $1.5 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2633.895,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E298C7FE0C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V25TVYZSY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1864.4769,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-114517A80E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DT5B1SC9X5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-2.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2.5 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1575.2682,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-CA7054C95A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S1KM7PMV93",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-3.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.00 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T14:01:25.783Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1285.0551999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-DA117D65CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WFNHG0CBP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-3.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T00:01:25.253Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2087.2799999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E07AEAB947",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q26P7QJJ46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 6.624,
      "volume_total_usd": 7087.5264,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-8DDD12BEE2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZW5D2H7TL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in September 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1250.6458,
      "volume_total_usd": 5910.3654,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D03ECACD91",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Y16ZP11P4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4ZDDJ6863",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-26SEP-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price via Ornn dashboard data, resolved by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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