{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
  "slug": "kxh200ms-27feb",
  "question": "NVIDIA H200 monthly average compute price, February 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      4.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 84
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 69
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 63
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 56
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 35
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 17
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-h200",
    "compute-pricing",
    "hardware-cost",
    "2027",
    "monthly-average"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the February 2027 monthly average hourly spot price for NVIDIA H200 GPU compute. Kalshi structures the event as eleven binary strike thresholds, from $1.50 to $6.50 per hour, each resolving independently. Together they imply a continuous probability distribution over the rate level. Kalshi staff determination uses the Ornn dashboard as the authoritative data source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L6GCGJZWF9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.51,
    "implied_probability": 0.51,
    "as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5RX73XT8Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $1.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2054.8399999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-49FA46B7CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53MY3NW9B5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T14:01:25.783Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1371.3700000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-6378526A69",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-47Q2RR1TC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-2.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1467.0499,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-64B59CEBBC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TBBLQQ9804",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-3.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 81.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-2595C86FF7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H1CZ6MJHL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-3.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-20T07:01:21.164Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 172.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-B782342D58",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PG3SQR2X18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 517.9216,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F89731DE1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L6GCGJZWF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 935.9214000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1644C03594",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YHRTX0BB22",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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}