{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
  "slug": "kxh200ms-27feb",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 in February 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      4.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 84
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 63
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 39
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 35
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 11
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-h200",
    "compute-pricing",
    "hardware-cost",
    "2027",
    "monthly-average"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly spot price of NVIDIA H200 GPU compute in February 2027. Kalshi structures the event as eleven discrete strike thresholds, from $1.50 to $6.50 per hour, each resolved independently. Together they imply a market-derived probability distribution over the H200 price level. Kalshi staff determination references an authoritative compute pricing dashboard as the settlement source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L6GCGJZWF9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.41,
    "implied_probability": 0.41
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5RX73XT8Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $1.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1801.9799999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-49FA46B7CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53MY3NW9B5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 854.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-6378526A69",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-47Q2RR1TC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-2.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 707.168,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-64B59CEBBC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TBBLQQ9804",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-3.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 80.24000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-2595C86FF7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H1CZ6MJHL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-3.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 163.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-B782342D58",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PG3SQR2X18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 344.4774,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F89731DE1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L6GCGJZWF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 666.7993999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1644C03594",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YHRTX0BB22",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1932.1731,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-94863B5860",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W04FX06VP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27FEB-5.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the monthly average compute price reported on the authoritative dashboard by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $5.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3CSXG7DX41",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}