{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
  "slug": "kxh200ms-27jan",
  "question": "NVIDIA H200 monthly average compute price, January 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.5,
      5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 82
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 64
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 51
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 43
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 36
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 13
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-hardware",
    "compute-pricing",
    "2027",
    "financial-markets",
    "ai-infrastructure"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of NVIDIA's H200 GPU in January 2027. Kalshi structures the event as eleven binary strike thresholds ranging from $1.50 to $6.50 per hour; together they imply a market-derived probability distribution over the rate level. All eleven markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination, closing February 1, 2027 and settling February 8, 2027. The truncated source description warrants scrutiny; traders should confirm the exact data source Kalshi staff will reference before taking positions.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1Y0H4NYT25",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39,
    "as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-83N86Q4LB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $1.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3088.3199999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-0EB6635B79",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-97WWDHDNS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 695.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-104C93999C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z1FHFP0L4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-2.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.50: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1869.7174,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-64B2247342",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YHNZZ8CGR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-3.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 667.5912,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-6BD6DE87FB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VD6NG1NHG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-3.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 615.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-52E905CD44",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GW5YFN3XT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1407.0004000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-52A3E6D3C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6CD9G58ZD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1059.5901,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-02980C68E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1Y0H4NYT25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination of the listed company's referenced accelerator monthly average compute price from Ornn resolves by February 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
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