{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
  "slug": "kxh200ms-27jan",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 in January 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      4.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 83
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 63
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 55
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 47
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 25
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 23
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 15
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 15
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-hardware",
    "compute-pricing",
    "2027",
    "financial-markets",
    "ai-infrastructure"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of the NVIDIA H200 GPU in January 2027. Kalshi structures the event as eleven discrete strike thresholds, from $1.50 to $6.50 per hour, each a binary yes/no. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes constructs a synthetic distribution of the expected rate level. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, using the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6CD9G58ZD7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.47,
    "implied_probability": 0.47
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-83N86Q4LB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $1.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2499.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-0EB6635B79",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-97WWDHDNS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 361.6,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-104C93999C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z1FHFP0L4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-2.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 617.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-64B2247342",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YHNZZ8CGR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-3.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 393.53,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-6BD6DE87FB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VD6NG1NHG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-3.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 471.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-52E905CD44",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GW5YFN3XT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1244.1743,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-52A3E6D3C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6CD9G58ZD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 764.8921,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-02980C68E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1Y0H4NYT25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1579.1075,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-01D8E1B6DE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "gpu",
        "h200",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia h200 compute"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-80XHR80136",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXH200MS-27JAN-5.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.50 in January 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor manufacturer's compute pricing product monthly average as published on the Ornn dashboard by February 8, 2027 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $5.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in January 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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    {
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      "description": "Above $6.00",
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      "close_at": "2027-02-01T04:59:59Z",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9QW6D6FSF2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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