{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
  "slug": "kxhmonthrange-26may",
  "question": "Will May 2026 have a temperature increase?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "monthly-temperature",
    "climate-measurement",
    "may-2026",
    "short-term-forecast",
    "weather-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the NOAA-reported global mean temperature anomaly for May 2026. Six discrete Kalshi tiers span from 1.03 degrees Celsius or below to above 1.30 degrees Celsius. All six brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive across the full distribution. Kalshi staff determination uses NOAA global temperature data published by June 17, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L0KGNJBHL8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0PZ62T0475",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-T1.03",
      "question": "May 2026 temperature increase?",
      "description": "1.02999 or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.02999 or below: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global temperature data published by June 17, 2026 determines whether the monthly increase falls within the specified range, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is below 1.03, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.66,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1.03,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "global temperature increase",
        "may-2026",
        "temperature"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0KGNJBHL8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.060",
      "question": "May 2026 temperature increase?",
      "description": "1.03 to 1.09",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.03 to 1.09: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global temperature data published by June 17, 2026 determines whether the monthly increase falls within the specified range, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.03-1.09, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1507.24,
      "volume_total_usd": 8429.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.09,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "global temperature increase",
        "may-2026",
        "temperature"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-36LTBHLYB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.130",
      "question": "May 2026 temperature increase?",
      "description": "1.10 to 1.16",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.10 to 1.16: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global temperature data published by June 17, 2026 determines whether the monthly increase falls within the specified range, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.10-1.16, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 35.6,
      "volume_total_usd": 255.14,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.16,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "global temperature increase",
        "may-2026",
        "temperature"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DVPX2KKVF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.200",
      "question": "May 2026 temperature increase?",
      "description": "1.17 to 1.23",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.17 to 1.23: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global temperature data published by June 17, 2026 determines whether the monthly increase falls within the specified range, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.17-1.23, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 75.32,
      "volume_total_usd": 352.44,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.23,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "global temperature increase",
        "may-2026",
        "temperature"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N8Y9D73WB5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.270",
      "question": "May 2026 temperature increase?",
      "description": "1.24 to 1.30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.24 to 1.30: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global temperature data published by June 17, 2026 determines whether the monthly increase falls within the specified range, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.24-1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "question_id": null,
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        "may-2026",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:02:15Z",
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        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
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        "global temperature increase",
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        "temperature"
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}