{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
  "slug": "kxhormuznorm-26mar17",
  "question": "Will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 2026-08-30?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-logistics",
    "geopolitical-risk",
    "middle-east",
    "energy-markets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Strait of Hormuz vessel transit calls recover to pre-disruption levels by sequential target dates through July 2026. The authoritative data source is the IMF PortWatch platform's 7-day moving average of transit calls. All contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination. The tiered structure prices the timing of recovery, not a binary outcome, letting desks isolate the probability distribution across specific recovery windows.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M3ZCQ2N2G3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.5,
    "implied_probability": 0.5,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CGVKS3NVZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-02T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3756.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1HKP99B226",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 15, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16823.85,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8Q0CVP4P2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-29T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8832.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0SVK7L1DT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260715",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 15, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 21783.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JCWVF3XHB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 155.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 53028.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7GJW9KPVZ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260815",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 15, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T13:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3620.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 23772.41,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHY4Y8MVD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before September 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31996.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 351834.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TL190ML3Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22732.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 446907.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XBKCKNBQK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261101",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-30T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6295.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 164622.55,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JJSPWLWMW5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261201",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Dec 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Dec 1, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5452.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 191090.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M3ZCQ2N2G3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 48008.77,
      "volume_total_usd": 884934.07,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RGG2D6MSB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Apr 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Apr 1, 2027: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before April 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5301.67,
      "volume_total_usd": 285730.45,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C2LTW2PXC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2027: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-29T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7389.32,
      "volume_total_usd": 627115.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "traffic strait hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBH33FKWH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 15, 2026: IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, measured before January 1, 2027, resolves per Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-19T13:56:58Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2480.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "imf portwatch",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N3GM3RM157",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260415",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Apr 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Apr 15, 2026: The 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz per IMF PortWatch resolves on October 30, 2026 via Kalshi staff determination using data available before August 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-21T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before April 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1025.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "logistics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-89LYF840T4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260501",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: The 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz per IMF PortWatch resolves on October 30, 2026 via Kalshi staff determination using data available before August 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-05T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2943.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "logistics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9S40NJSYG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260401",
      "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Apr 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "IMF PortWatch publishes the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-01T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before April 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 521.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "geopolitics",
        "maritime",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz day"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JCWVF3XHB9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-10-30T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-89LYF840T4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-30T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0SVK7L1DT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-21T14:49:19.808023Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N3GM3RM157",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8Q0CVP4P2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-07T14:49:24.510557Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.001,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1HKP99B226",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T14:47:13.38794Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9S40NJSYG0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-06-15T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CGVKS3NVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-02T15:34:11.828008Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.001,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBH33FKWH0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-19T14:27:01.586328Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}