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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZP3JDLXZQ0",
  "slug": "kxhormuzpeak-26jul26",
  "question": "The highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      10,
      15
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 69
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      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 29
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      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 6
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      {
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        "prob": 5
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      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 3
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      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 2
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  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-traffic",
    "geopolitical-chokepoint",
    "energy-markets",
    "weekly-peak"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track peak single-day vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of July 20-26, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as six discrete strike thresholds: 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 40 transits, each a separate binary contract on whether the weekly peak exceeds that level. Taken together, they form an implied distribution of peak throughput across that observation window. IMF PortWatch serves as the authoritative data source, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff.",
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    "implied_probability": 0.15
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "question": "Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 10: IMF PortWatch will determine the highest single-day transit calls through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolving by October 26, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 735.3864,
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