{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
  "slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26aug09",
  "question": "Transit calls through Strait of Hormuz, week ending August 9, 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      35,
      40
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 66
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 45
      },
      {
        "threshold": 45,
        "prob": 41
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 39
      },
      {
        "threshold": 55,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60,
        "prob": 25
      },
      {
        "threshold": 65,
        "prob": 15
      },
      {
        "threshold": 70,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 75,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 80,
        "prob": 10
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-logistics",
    "geopolitical-risk",
    "middle-east",
    "quantitative-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track weekly vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for August 3-9, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as fourteen binary strike thresholds, ranging from 15 to 80 transits, allowing traders to express a view on the realized count level. Together the strikes form an implied probability distribution over weekly chokepoint throughput. IMF PortWatch is the authoritative data source; Kalshi staff determination governs resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NDWV1JQKT6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.45,
    "implied_probability": 0.45
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PKQ4518VL2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T15",
      "question": "Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 198.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BSY6ZHHTQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T20",
      "question": "Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 129.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 320.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QKY50PF1T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T25",
      "question": "Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 25: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 225.85,
      "volume_total_usd": 328.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-664464WJZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T30",
      "question": "Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 226.81,
      "volume_total_usd": 402.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CVF2LBTLS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T35",
      "question": "Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 35",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 35: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 35 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 401.73,
      "volume_total_usd": 1016.14,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NDWV1JQKT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T40",
      "question": "Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 822.77,
      "volume_total_usd": 975.41,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LVRVQQMXX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T45",
      "question": "Will there be more than 45 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 45",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 45: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 45 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 180.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 242.94,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 45,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQ94ZZNPL4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T50",
      "question": "Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 872.23,
      "volume_total_usd": 1255.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q53DPRJSW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T55",
      "question": "Will there be more than 55 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 55",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 55: IMF PortWatch reports the weekly count of transits through the referenced chokepoint for the specified week, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 9, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 55 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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