{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
  "slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26jun14",
  "question": "Transit transits through the Strait of Hormuz, week of June 14, 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      15,
      20
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 75,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-traffic",
    "geopolitical-risk",
    "middle-east",
    "maritime-commerce"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track weekly vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from June 8 to June 14, 2026. Ten binary contracts form a strike ladder at thresholds of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 75, and 100 transits. Each contract prices the probability that observed volume clears its specific threshold. Kalshi staff determination relies on IMF PortWatch AIS-derived transit data as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZJNCV08BQ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J2SK8MXK90",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T5",
      "question": "Will there be more than 5 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2425.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 4164.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5VXMW9L2B4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T10",
      "question": "Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1027.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 3558.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZJ4HY1103",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T15",
      "question": "Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 925.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 2029.64,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZJNCV08BQ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T20",
      "question": "Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1841.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 3724.44,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T1KKKKQR21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T25",
      "question": "Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 25: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2024.23,
      "volume_total_usd": 3422.19,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8F76815WX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T30",
      "question": "Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 841.78,
      "volume_total_usd": 2182.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CBDT2Z1K20",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T40",
      "question": "Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 259.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 930.32,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6XWP5W7HM5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T50",
      "question": "Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50: Kalshi staff determination based on IMF PortWatch data for transit passages through the referenced chokepoint during the specified week, resolved by September 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 78.69,
      "volume_total_usd": 145.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transit",
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